Grčka i Argentina – Mario Blejer i Guillermo Ortiz

autora/ice cronomy

Slučaj Argentine i devalvacija pesosa često se spominju kao usporedivi događaji – ono što je uspjelo Argentini, uspjeti će i Grčkoj. Da to možda i nije tako – iako je Grčka de facto bankrotirana zemlja, ako ne de jure – govore bivši centralni bankari Argentine i Meksika. Grčka će se lakše oporaviti unutar euro zone nego van (sa garantirano velikom deflacijom svakako) njihova je poruka.

Naravno da izlazak iz euro zone predstavlja ogromne probleme i ostavlja mnoga pitanja otvorena, poput da li ima smisla uvesti euro ili koji su benefiti toga, za druge zemlje koje nemaju euro. Stvari su se, je li, promjenile u posljednjih par godina.  No temeljno pitanje kod razmatranja uspješnosti svake nove politike nije koliki je trošak u odnosu na što je zemlja X napravila i postigla, već koliki je trošak u odnosu da se ništa ne napravi, tj. ostane na istom putu.

Given this grim outlook many analysts suggest that it would be better for Greece to exit the euro zone. They often cite Argentina’s exit from its currency board in 2002 as evidence of the benefits that would accrue to Greece if it reintroduced its own currency. It is true that following the peso devaluation, and after a painful (but short) adjustment period, Argentina enjoyed six years of rapid growth. But Argentina’s experience was singular. Strong export prices resulted in sustainable external surpluses, and prudent fiscal management ensured internal balance. Greece, on the other hand, cannot rely on favourable external conditions and is already in a deep, fiscally induced recession.

In practice, moreover, Argentina had no choice after defaulting but to ditch its peg since the currency board was a unilateral arrangement that did not envisage counterparty support or institutional safety nets. Unlike Argentina, Greece belongs to a formal multilateral arrangement that could provide the intensive care and official finance needed to smooth the adjustment. Indeed, we argue that an analysis of the costs incurred by Argentina strengthens the case for Greece to remain within the euro zone.

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