Kako što kaže Alphaville, blog o tržištu Financial Timesa, pacijent ne odgovara na terapiju. Na reanimaciji je … već sedmi dan zaredom. Izgleda da je danas i Azija pritisla Panic Button. Za četvrtak:
Dow 8,579.19 -678.91 (-7.33%)
S&P 500 909.92 -75.02 (-7.62%)
Prošla je točno godina dana od kad je DowJones Index, po prvi put u povijesti, dotaknuo rekordnih 14,164.53. Od onda je izgubio 39%. Iako sadrži samo 30 kompanija, DJIA predstavlja nešto manje od 30% kapitalizacije američkog tržišta.
S&P 500 je od rekorda na 1565 prošle godine pa na 909, izgubivši 37%. Taj indeks je ispravnije mjerilo dnevnog performansa dioničkog tržišta pošto predstavlja skoro 80% kapitalizacije ukupnog američkog tržišta.
Jednostavan graf DJIA i S&P 500 za posljednje dvije godine. (Klik za uvećanje)
DJIA nije bio ispod 9000 bodova od 2003. Strah o lošem stanju bankarskog sektora i utjecaj toga na realnu ekonomiju je jedan od glavnih faktora u drastičnim tržišnim padovima posljednjih dana. Banke i financijske institutcije su pod najvećim udarima, najviše pate. Dow Jones Wilshire US Banks Index je pao 11% jučer i 53.4% u posljednjih godinu dana, usporedbi sa -41.76% za S&500. (Graf ispod)
U posljednje 3 godine (graf ispod) isti bankovni indeks je dolje -47.29% u usporedbi sa -24.49% za S&P500.
Nedavni gubitci na tržištima predstavljaju jedan najgorih medvjeđih tržišta (bear market) u desetljećima. Službena definicija tržišnog kraha je pad od 20% u jednom danu ili par dana zaredom, što se dogodilio 1929. i 1987. i što trenutno tržište gotov pa i ispunjava.
Mrak, možeš slikati ovog medvjeda??
Evo još par komentara, via WSJ.
- U.S. stocks, as measured by the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000, shed $872 billion in market value on Thursday, $2.5 trillion over the last seven trading sessions, and $8.4 trillion since hitting an all-time high one year ago Thursday. The index includes almost all U.S. public companies. (Zapravo nema službenog broja javnih kompanija na američkom tržištu, i.e. onih koje trguju na burzi. Po nekim procjenama ima ih i do 15000.)
- “We are in a secular bear market,” says Russ Koesterich, head of investment strategy at Barclays Global Investors in San Francisco, using Wall Street jargon for this kind of prolonged weak period. Analysts distinguish between long-running “secular” periods and shorter-term bear markets, such as the one that occurred from 2000 through 2002.
- The way some investors see it, if the government feels the need to intervene more drastically, the problem might be even larger than it had seemed. That kind of self-reinforcing fear is symptomatic of a secular bear market, where bearish sentiment trumps fundamentals.
- “We had a secular bear market from 1968 to 1982, and another that began in 1929,” Mr. Koesterich says. Stocks sometimes mount strong rallies during the lengthy weak periods. They nearly doubled in value from 2002 through 2007, but have since given back most of those gains.
- The size of the Dow’s recent declines surpasses anything seen in the past two bear markets, and is the largest seven-session percentage drop since the days surrounding the 1987 crash.
- At the height of the 1990s bull market, the price of stocks in the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index rose to more than 30 times company profits, a record level that was more than twice the historical average. Between March 2000 and October 2002, the S&P 500 fell 49%, but its price-to-earnings ratio never fell to the historical average of 15 or 16. To some market analysts, that meant stock values were still too high and investors were still too optimistic.
- At Thursday’s close, the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 was down to 10.7, the lowest since the early 1980s.
- Traders and analysts say that markets remain in the grip of an increasingly self-fulfilling bearish view. Each day’s market drop sparks worries that fuel the next’s, and each day of high borrowing costs between banks is interpreted as evidence that risks remain high, which props up the next day’s rates. “Psychology is not allowing what the economics textbook says should happen to actually happen,” said strategist Doug Peta, of the New York portfolio-management firm J. & W. Seligman.
Ipak, samo jedna stvar će zaustaviti/primiriti paniku i zaustaviti nediskriminirajuću rasprodaju. Više o tome uskoro.
According to data from the British Bankers’ Association, overnight U.S. dollar Libor fell slightly from Wednesday’s fixing. But longer-term funding pressures tightened. The key three-month Libor rate rose to 4.75% from 4.52% .
Those rates are key to setting credit levels that banks charge their clients, including companies whose activities drive growth. “Every single business in the world needs working capital,” said Mr. Peta. “You need to spend money to make something before you can sell it, which is what generates your profits, which is what drives the stock market.”
“This is indiscriminate selling,” said trader Todd Salamone, of Schaeffer’s Investment Research, an analysis and asset-management firm in Cincinnati. “Not until there are massive improvements in the credit markets are we likely to see this really end.“
Cronomy.org 