Archive for 31 ožujka, 2012

31. ožujka 2012

Privatizacija, Keynes i investiranje

autora/ice cronomy

Istina je da pišem jedan malo duži post o privatizaciji i PTKM. Ali još nisam završio. Stoga, naslov je malo zavaravajući.

Do onda pogledajte zanimljiv rad o Keynesu kao investitoru. Stock Picker Extraordinaire. Priča via WSJ (video na linku).

But Keynes wasn’t a very good macro manager. He lagged behind the British stock market miserably until 1928, and he had 83% of his primary portfolio in stocks going into the fall of 1929.

“It’s hard to time the markets,” Mr. Chambers says. “Keynes struggled with it, and then he missed the 1929 crash—even with an unrivaled network of information sources.”

So Keynes made a series of radical changes: He switched from being a “top down” asset allocator to a “bottom up” stock picker. He tilted sharply toward undervalued small and midsize companies.

Keynes also made titanic bets on industries he thought were cheap; by 1936, he had 66% of his portfolio in mining stocks and not a farthing in bank or energy shares. South African gold companies, he correctly foresaw, would benefit from falling currency values.


Keynes was no mere contrarian. He was the epitome of his own definition of a long-term investor: “eccentric, unconventional and rash in the eyes of average opinion.” To emulate Keynes, “you have to be idiosyncratic,” Mr. Chambers says. “That’s easy to say but much harder to execute.”

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