Archive for ‘Javne Financije’

02. ožujka 2009

IJF i Katarina Ott oštro….

autora/ice cronomy

…i istinito. U novom Aktualnom osvrtu Instituta za Javne Financije, Katarina Ott je sa opipljivom dozom nezadovoljstva oštro ocjenila Vladinu fiskalnu politiku i “antirecesijske” mjere koje bi trebale biti stimulacija gospodarstvu, a ne destimulacija. Sa malo riječi puno je toga rečeno.

U recesiji ili ne, Hrvatska ima problema s kojima bi se morala suočavati čak i bez svjetske recesije. Hrvatska predugo živi iznad svojih mogućnosti i računi sve više dolaze na naplatu, a u uvjetima svjetske recesije su i sve skuplji. U doba prosperiteta ni jedna se hrvatska vlada nije zamarala sređivanjem fiskusa, obuzdavanjem rasta javnog sektora te provođenjem institucionalnih reformi. To je npr. činila Estonija koja sad zahvaljujući solidnim zalihama može provoditi ekspanzivnu fiskalnu politiku da se odupre recesiji i ne mora provoditi restriktivne mjere kojima bi situaciju još i pogoršala. Hrvatska pak mora u najgorim mogućim okolnostima popravljati konkurentnost, smanjivati deficit proračuna i platne bilance te prikupljati sredstva za otplatu dugova. Po tko zna koji put valja naglasiti da nema druge nego smanjivati potrošnju. Pritom treba ciljano smanjivati rashode koji najviše opterećuju proračun – plaće u javnom sektoru i izdatke za mirovinsko, zdravstveno i socijalu koji čine oko 70% ukupnih državnih rashoda.

Srž i bit fiskalne konsolidacije je rashodovna strana, a Vlada se time nije bavila. Ta priča je zapravo proračunska bajka i ima svoj početak i kraj. Neki mediji su prenjeli provokativan naslov da Ott kaže kako se treba povisiti stopa PDVa. Ne, ne treba ako se smanje rashodi koji najviše opterećuju proračun. Povećanje stope PDVa u odnosu na uvođenje ili povećanje drugih poreza je daleko bolja opcija, ali to nije bit priče! Pročitajte cijeli Osvrt ovdje.

Valjalo bi se možda osvrnuti i na uvijek prisutne sulude ideje o devalvaciji, na ograničavanje rada nedjeljom, ali nemoguće je sve obuhvatiti. Svakako valja spomenuti i Međunarodni monetarni fond. Ako smo kadri sami provesti fiskalnu konsolidaciju onda nam Fond ne treba. Ako je ne provedemo, morat ćemo zvati Fond, a onda će on poduzeti – fiskalnu konsolidaciju.

Da, nemoguće je sve obuhvatiti u pdf Osvrtu, ali možda u blogu IJFa? Možda se kroz blog par puta na tjedan može osvrnuti na temem kako dolaze? Ideje o drugom stupu – blog osvrt. Porezi na SMS poruke – blog osvrt. Trošarine na mobitele – blog osvrt. Zazivanje MMFa – blog osvrt. Nerad nedjeljom – blog osvrt. Devalvacija – blog osvrt. Mislim da ideja za osvrt ima na pretek, a baš mehanizam bloga bi omogućio da se potražnja za osvrtom na sve te sulude ideje uskladi sa njihovom ponudom.

01. ožujka 2009

Istočna Europa dobiva $31.2 (€24.5) za spas

autora/ice cronomy

Tri banke/institucije, najveći multinacionalni investitori i zajmodavci u Istočnoj Europi, EBRD, World Bank i European Investment Bank daju €24.5 za spas bankarskog sektora i kreditiranja biznisa Centralne i Istočne Europe. “Davanja” se sastoje od zajmova, kupovanja učešća i direktnog kreditiranja malih i srednjih poduzeća, kroz dvogodišnji plan. Za vidjeti je još koliko će Hrvatska dobiti od tog ne pretjerano značajnog iznosa, te koliko će si Dr. Spin pripisati zasluga za “osiguravanje sredstava” iako ga u biti spašavaju . Pod stavkom 5. antirecesijskih mjera za HBOR se traži dodatnih 400 mil. upravo ovim putem. Da li traženje tih sredstava ovisi o rebalansu i općenito koliko-si-sami-možemo-pomoći principu?

Iz communiquea tri institucije:

This initiative complements national crisis responses and will deploy rapid, large-scale and coordinated financial assistance from the International Financial Institutions to support lending to the real economy through private banking groups, in particular to small and medium-sized enterprises. The financial support will include equity and debt finance, credit lines, and political risk insurance.

The response takes into account the different macroeconomic circumstances in and financial pressures on countries in eastern Europe, acknowledging the diversity of challenges stemming from the global financial retrenchment.

EBRD President Thomas Mirow said: “The institutions are working together to find practical, efficient and timely solutions to the crisis in eastern Europe. We are acting because we have a special responsibility for the region and because it makes economic sense. For many years the growing integration of Europe has been a source of prosperity and mutual benefit and we must not allow this process to be reversed.”

Dalje članak sa MarketWatch.com

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The World Bank and two other multinational institutions issued a joint pledge Friday to provide up to 24.5 billion euros ($31.2 billion) to support the banking sector in Eastern Europe and fund lending to businesses.
Analysts, however, were skeptical that the size of the announced support would be enough to address the region’s vast economic woes.
The move by the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the European Investment Bank comes as Eastern European countries struggle to meet massive, foreign-denominated debt obligations. The International Monetary Fund has already provided loans to Latvia, Hungary, Serbia, Ukraine and Belarus.
Formerly robust inflows of cash have dried up amid the global economic crisis, and the region’s currencies have come under heavy pressure — a situation some economists see as a potential repeat of the Asian financial crisis of the 1990s.
Investors have grown increasingly concerned in recent days about the exposure of Western European corporations, including banks, to fragile Eastern European economies. The vulnerability of Western banks, particularly those based in Austria and Sweden, was spotlighted by ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service last week.
‘Time to come together’
The three organizations, the largest multilateral investors and lenders in Eastern Europe, said the package is designed to support lending to the real economy through private banking groups. Support will include equity and debt finance, credit lines and political-risk insurance.
“This is a time for Europe to come together to ensure that the achievements of the last 20 years are not lost because of an economic crisis that is rapidly turning into a human crisis,” said World Bank President Robert Zoellick, according to a statement from that institution.
Under the plan, the European Investment Bank is to provide about 11 billion euros in lending to small and midsize businesses in the central, eastern and southern parts of Europe. Some 5.7 billion euros are available for “rapid disbursement,” with an additional 2.8 billion euros set for approval by the end of April and further funds expected to follow, the bank said.
Meanwhile, the EBRD has committed to provide up to 6 billion euros for the financial sector in 2009 and 2010 through equity and debt finance, loans to banks and directly to small and medium-size businesses and trade finance.
The World Bank is to provide about 7.5 billion euros in support.
“For many years the growing integration of Europe has been a source of prosperity and mutual benefit, and we must not allow this process to be reversed,” said EBRD President Thomas Mirow in a statement.
Most of the ex-communist countries in Central and Eastern Europe have joined the European Union, thereby deepening their political and economic integration with the west.
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the IMF, said the joint initiative “will assist individual financial institutions and sectors, while IMF lending will continue to support countries at the macroeconomic level.”
“Both aspects are important building blocks in the broader multilateral and bilateral efforts to support the region,” Strauss-Kahn said in a statement.
‘Small change’
Analysts, however, expressed skepticism whether the announced support would be enough.
“This money is really small change,” Timothy Ash, head of CEEMEA research at Royal Bank of Scotland. Total European bank exposure to Emerging Europe runs in excess of $1.5 trillion, he said.
“Given the scale of the problems, it will take a big-ticket program — a mini-TARP for the region — to pull the current collective negative market psychosis around,” Ash said, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program adopted by the American government to help the banking sector.
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