Nominalno sad … realno onda

autora/ice cronomy

Trebao bi se i ja javiti malo o ishodu izbora. No, sve rasprave sada se vode oko nominalnih ishoda, tj. koliko sigurnih mjesta tko ima i koliko može dobiti koaliranjem, a ja nisam politički komentator pa me ovakve rasprave zanimaju samo kao vijesti. Ono što mene zanima jest realni ishod izbora, tj. da li će se išta promjeniti, principijelno u ekonomskoj politici kao osnovi svih drugih programa i ideja. Tek kad netko dobije mandat od Predsjednika dolazi do mog pravog interesa. Možda je to retoričko pitanje za većinu koja, ukoliko HDZ opet osnuje vlast ne vidi nikakvu mogućnost ili razloga za promjenu. No, imajte na umu da su protekle 4 godine išle manje više “ko po loju” u ekonomiji. Nezaposlenost je padala, inflacija je bila niska, ekonomija je rasla i u zadnjoj godini čak više od potencijala, rast poreznih prihoda je shodno tome bio veći i proračunski deficit je smanjen i na putu svođenja na nulu. Svjetske kamatne stope su bile na povijesno niskim razinama. Rast vanjske zaduženosti je usporen, a i izvoz je nešto sitno ubrzao (iako je jaz veći i potencijali su neiskorišteni). Financijsko tržište se razvijalo (dionice su rasle) i postiglo neke levele gdje je osjetljivo na izbornu kampanju i reagira na moguću promjenu vlasti. I realne plaće su nešto rasle, iako mislim da službeni podaci ne pokazuju pravo stanje. Plaće u sivoj ekonomiji su rasle brže od službenih podataka. Sve u svemu, Hrvatskoj je ekonomski išlo dobro, (ali moglo je i bolje, i ne znači da nema problema) a kako i nebi kad je i ostatku svijeta. No, sada dolazi do obrnutog slučaja.

Najveće ekonomije usporavaju, primarno SAD a i zemlje EUa su na klimavim nogama, iako bi Francuska mogla izvuči EU sa većom stopom rasta. Larry Summers, bivši američki ministar financija, tako ukazuje na veću vjerojatnost recesije u Americi. (the odds now favour a US recession that slows growth significantly on a global basis”) Kreditne trzavice koje su tamo započele, udarile u Europu, gdje su neke banke doista propale dok su neke američke ipak još žive iako znatno u crvenom, će tako ako ne direktno onda indirektno imati utjecaj na Hrvatsku ekonomiju. Jedan analitičar u Europi jučer kaže:
“There’s a genuine fear here of bank failure, which I don’t think there was in August,” said Tim Bond, strategist at Barclays Capital.

Europske banke su pod značajnim financijskim stresom, opcije za financiranje su smanjene. Kratkoročne kamate rastu kako nepovjerenje među bankama raste i pošto investitori zaobilaze u širokom luku sve rizike. Posljedica toga je bankovno nagomilavanje gotovine u strahu od dodatnih gubitaka i pada vrijednosti određenih instrumenata. “Cash is king” sad vrijedi više nego ikad, što znaći manje kreditiranja javnosti, ali i poduzeća. Privatna poduzeća koja se kreditiraju direktno vani bi se mogla naći sa većim kamatama ili općenito nemogućnošću dobivanja potrebnih zajmova. U takvom okružju i ukoliko dođe do toga u Hrvatskoj, HNB bi možda trebao intervenirati pumpanjem likvidnosti, hitnim inekcijama novca. Rohatinski je objasnio i najavio da je HNB spreman na to. No, za zapamtiti je da se vremena mjenjaju i to ne na bolje. Više problema će se nazirati kako svjetska, a za Hrvatsku najvažnija je europska, ekonomija uspori. To je isto dio poslovnog ciklusa i nema neke silne, direktne veze sa “onima na vlasti.” Ima indirektne jer fleksibilnost ekonomije pred licem recesije koja svakako nije neminovna, ali, usporavanje je moguće, koliko duboko će recesija pogoditi, koliko dugo će usporavanje trajati, ovisi o potezima vlasti da učine ekonomiju fleksibilnijom i efikasnijom. Hrvatska je samo 1999. godine, u posljednih 10 osjetila recesiju, i to manju. Pravi ispiti za novu Vladu tek dolaze i zato je puno važniji realni ishod izbora, od nominalnog.

Dolje sam kopirao tekst Manje Šegrta, sa Bloomberga o ishodu izbora. Podcrtao sam neke zanimljive observacije. Hrvoje Stojić iz HAAB (vidi njegov optimističan komentar danas u Banci,) kaže da niti jedna stranka nije najavila promjenu u fiskalnoj politici, što je malo generalizirani odgovor i više u stilu kampanje gdje nitko ne želi ćuti da će buduća vlada smanjiti bacanje novca. Naravno da nitko to neće najaviti. No, koliko se ja sjećam, SDP je najavljivao nove poreze i smanjenje poreza na rad, sve uz novu potrošnju, kao i decentralizaciju što mora značiti fiskalana decentralizacija. Uz to, EU će puhati za vratom oko subvencija gubitašima (brodogradnji) kao i određenih poreza i stopa. Sve to bi trebalo imati određenog utjecaj na strukturu prihoda i rashoda države. Primjetiti isto kako se nigdje ne spominje mogući premjer koalicijske, SDPove Vlade.

Croatian Parties Begin Search for Coalition Allies (Update2)
By Manja Segrt

Nov. 26 (Bloomberg) — Croatian Prime Minister Ivo Sanader and the rival Social Democratic Party began seeking allies to form a coalition government after yesterday’s general election ended with both sides claiming they can muster enough support.

Sanader’s Croatian Democratic Union, known by its Croatian acronym HDZ, was set to win 61 seats, while the Social Democrats, led by Zoran Milanovic, may have 56, 26 more than in the last election, with nearly all votes counted, the State Election Committee said. Seven other parties probably got enough votes to enter parliament. The winning coalition needs 77 votes for a majority in parliament.

“The HDZ definitely has the relative majority of votes, but the problem now is who can get coalition partners, parties to help them form the new government,” political analyst Marijana Grbesa told the Index.hr Web portal. “The question is who will convince” President Stjepan Mesic “that they are capable of gathering coalition partners.”

The 54-year-old premier came to power in 2003 and led a three-party coalition supported by ethnic minority lawmakers that he will seek to reconstitute. Still, the increase in the number of Social Democratic lawmakers and the previously announced support of the Croatian People’s Party, which may have won seven seats, could give Milanovic a chance to take power. The Istrian Democratic Forum, with three seats, offered its support to SDP.

EU Ambitions

The next government will probably lead the country into the European Union. Sanader’s administration began entry talks two years ago and the country aims to join by the end of 2010 or early 2011. The previous three governments survived full four- year terms.

Under Sanader’s stewardship, the Adriatic Sea state had 14 consecutive quarters of economic growth, average inflation was around 3 percent and wages rose while unemployment fell to a record low in August.

The Zagreb Stock Exchange’s Crobex index closed up 0.9 percent at 4729.11 points. The kuna was trading at 7.3285 against the euro, down 0.1 percent from 7.3213 per euro on Nov. 23 at 4:02 p.m..

Party Choices

Andjelko Milardovic, head of the Political Science Research Center, said in a telephone interview two smaller parties “will definitely go with the Social Democrats,” while the two with the lowest representation “are more likely to support HDZ. The remaining parties and ethnic minorities have not yet said who they’ll support.”

Milanovic, 41, led a comeback for his party, also known as the SDP, which as recently as March was trailing Sanader’s with just 18.8 percent support in a poll. By October, a survey for the Puls research agency had both parties at 30.3 percent.

”Whichever side forms the coalition, it shouldn’t have an impact on the domestic market,” said Hrvoje Stojic, chief economist at Hypo Group Alpe Adria Bank. “Neither party announced changes in the fiscal policy, so if the economy continues its steady growth, spending will increase too.”

Standard and Poor’s rating company said today that the election outcome will not affect the credit rating. S&P rates Croatia’s long-term debt has been rated BBB with a stable outlook since December, 2004, on par with Tunisia and one step above the lowest investment grade ranking.

`Strong Commitment’

“Both political parties have a strong commitment to EU membership, which acts as a policy anchor, and, regardless of who forms a government, the outlook on the ratings on Croatia is stable,” it said in its bulletin today.

EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn today praised the commitment to membership in the bloc by all parties involved in the election process.

“I trust the future government will strive for EU membership and work on fulfilling the necessary criteria in order to meet the ambitious targets which Croatia has set for itself,” Rehn was quoted as saying in an e-mailed statement by the European Commission’s Delegation in Croatia. “For our part, the commission will continue to be fully engaged in supporting these efforts.”

Both parties claimed they can pull together a coalition.

“I’ve spoken with President Stjepan Mesic and told him I expect the mandate to form the next government,” Sanader said at his party’s headquarters last night.

Milanovic was equally adamant, telling reporters: “I am happy with these results and I am saying that we are starting to create the Croatian government.”

President Stjepan Mesic must call the first session of the new parliament within 20 days. Turnout in the election was 63.5 percent.

Potential Candidates

We have potential candidates for a coalition for both sides, I mean the HDZ and the SDP,’‘ the president told reporters after early results were announced last night.

There will probably be 153 legislators in the new parliament, as turnout among Croatians living abroad gave the expatriates five lawmakers, all from the HDZ’s lists.

Of the other parties likely to be represented in the parliament, the Croatian People’s Party, likely to get seven seats and the Istrian Democratic Forum with three, have said they will support the SDP.

The Croatian Peasants’ Party in alliance with the Social Liberals together have a probable eight seats; the Croatian Democratic Union of Slavonija and Baranja has three; and the Croatian Party of Rights and the Croatian Pensioners’ Party, have one seat each. None have announced which of the main parties they’ll back. There will also be eight members elected by minority ethnic groups living in Croatia.

These are the sixth democratic elections in Croatia since 1990, when the nation was still a member of the Yugoslav Federation. It declared independence a year later, after which it fought a four-year war with its ethnic Serb population, who were protected by Serbian troops dispatched by Belgrade.

To contact the reporter on this story: Manja Segrt in Zagreb at msegrt@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 26, 2007 10:46 EST

Oglasi

3 komentara to “Nominalno sad … realno onda”

  1. Sve je tako je kako kažeš ! Doduše, čitao sam u Economistu da ima nade da će developing countries preuzeti slack i potegnuti, ali har landing će definitivno uzrokovati probleme.

    A da se vratimo na domaću politiku, da možeš birati, u koga bi imao više povjerenja da će u sljedeće 4 godine voditi bolju politiku ?

    Čisto me zanima tvoja procjena, a ako je pitanje suviše “intimno” ;-), i to ću razumjeti…

  2. Nije suviše intimno. Strpi se do sutra navečer i imati ću novi post sa mojim odgovorom baš na to pitanje. (Napokon se riješavam obaveze sutra.)

  3. 🙂

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