MMF i Hrvatska (Update)

autora/ice cronomy

MMF je objavio preliminarne zaključke nakon završenih konzultacija. Neki domaći i strani mediji već su prenijeli službeno mišljenje MMFa. Dobro bi bilo vidjeti i koji istraživački rad koji je pratio prošla izješća. Kratkoročno, prioriteti su očuvanje tečajne stabilnosti, financijske stabilnosti i kontrola likvodnosti.

Dugoročno, potrebno je popraviti strukturalne slabosti –  restrukturiranje gubitaških državnih kompanija, javne uprave i racionalizacija državne potrošnje (obrazovanja, socijalne, zdravstva) – i raditi na povećanju konkurentnosti. I to ne “samo” zato kako bi realizirali potencijal ispod kojeg već godinama operiramo, već i kako bi spriječili trajne posljedice pod potencijalni output.

Uglavnom, dobar sažetak svega na čemu se već godinama inzistira i na reformama na kojima se moglo već poraditi više, ali sada uz dodatka imperativa zbog financijske krize koja ostavlja dalekosežne efekte. Par paragrafa ispod.

UPDATE – Zaključna izjava MMFa je dostupna i na hrvatskom na stranicama HNBa.

2. The mission expects a considerable decline in economic activity in 2009. While GDP growth estimates at this point are subject to an unusual degree of uncertainty, the GDP growth projection of -2 percent in the revised budget, although possible, would require a recovery starting in the second half of the year. In the mission’s view, downside risks dominate and economic activity could contract more sharply. Domestic demand would be the key driver, with weakening private consumption and a large drop in investment. Import contraction is expected to outpace the fall in exports, and the current account deficit would narrow to about 6.5 percent of GDP. Growth is expected to remain sluggish in 2010, with the strength and pace of recovery depending, inter alia, on regional economic and financial conditions. …

4. Challenging times require strong policies. In the near-term, maintaining stability will require implementation of prudent fiscal, monetary, and financial policies, and preparedness to respond quickly if tail risks materialize. To bolster confidence, it is essential that short-term measures be complemented by reforms to address long-standing competitiveness issues and increase the economy’s growth potential.

I. Preserving exchange rate stability

6. The mission acknowledges the difficult trade-offs involved in deciding on the exchange rate policy for the period ahead. Rising unit labor costs and structural weaknesses of the Croatian economy in combination with exchange rate depreciations in some neighboring countries risk to erode competitiveness. With significant private sector balance sheet vulnerabilities, a sharp depreciation would have devastating effects on unhedged corporates and households, and indirectly on financial institutions. The continuation of the current exchange rate regime underlines thus the importance of rising flexibility elsewhere, in particular, swift progress with structural reforms and adequate external financing….

II. Securing adequate external financing

• General government. A reorientation of financing to foreign sources would help deflect financing pressures on the economy. In this context, a successful eurobond placement in May would demonstrate market confidence in the authorities’ policies and serve as an important benchmark for corporate foreign borrowing. It would also allow more space for domestic bank lending to the private sector…..

III. Crisis proofing the financial system

• Enhance banks’ capital buffers. Although bank solvency ratios remain satisfactory, (with the aggregate capital adequacy ratio of the banking sector at 14.5 percent well above the regulatory minimum), the economic downturn will impair bank credit quality and increase vulnerabilities. The most recent stress test results reaffirm banks’ vulnerability primarily to exchange rate depreciation and also to output contraction.. The mission thus encourages the authorities to undertake a diagnostic review of the financial conditions of all individual Croatian banks….

• Upgrade the framework for resolution of troubled assets. The authorities should proceed with the adoption of the new foreclosure law to speed up the resolution of corporate and household bankruptcies….

IV. Buttress confidence with sustainable fiscal consolidation

11. The revised budget deficit target of 1.6 percent of GDP for the general government is appropriate under current circumstances. Croatia’s vulnerable external position, tight domestic financing conditions, and the need to preserve space for crisis-related contingencies leave little room for more stimulus to cushion the economic slowdown. …

12. Budget execution is now key to achieve this target. The mission welcomes the recent health sector reforms to improve cost recovery and the adoption of tax identification numbers that would allow stronger tax compliance and better targeting of social benefits. Wage growth restraint was inevitable, given little options to reduce other spending in 2009, absent structural reforms.

13. Additional measures would be needed were revenue to fall short of budget projections. The recent sharp declines in revenues, particularly VAT, show their sensitivity to the economic cycle, and the budget is optimistic in the VAT collection projections. To prevent a higher deficit, the authorities should consider contingency measures and be prepared to act quickly with a supplementary budget.

Da ne ostane sve na kratkoročnim prioritetima i da ne pomislimo da će nas Vlada bavljenjem samo njima izvući. Ekonomska priča ne završava kad završi i financijska kriza i globalna recesija.

V. Structural Reforms to Boost Croatia’s Growth Potential

16. The economy needs to emerge from the current juncture more resilient and dynamic. Output and export growth has been lackluster in recent years, and Croatia performs below its potential and its peers. With the economy performing below potential in the near term, output gaps will widen and levels of unemployment will increase. Experience with past financial crises suggests that the risk of a permanent loss in potential output is considerable. To achieve growth rates of 4-5 percent over the medium-term in an environment of reduced capital inflows competitiveness of the economy needs to improve. Reforms are needed to raise labor productivity, reduce impediments to investment, and reorient the economy towards the tradable sector.

17. Now, therefore, it is the time to tackle long-standing structural issues. The mission welcomes the authorities’ intention to persevere with the reorganization and privatization of the shipyards within 2009. There is also room in 2009 for starting with a civil service reform; and rationalization of the structure of government operations. The objective needs to be a smaller, better paid, more dynamic and efficient civil service at all levels of government. These initiatives would not only be important to make progress in rolling back the weight of the public sector in Croatia’s economy, but also to buttress confidence in Croatia’s ability to withstand the crisis out of its own means. In addition, renewed impetus will be needed to: (i) promote labor market reforms; (ii) accelerate effective reform of health, education, social benefits and assistance; and, more generally, (iii) improve the business environment.

Oglasi

2 komentara to “MMF i Hrvatska (Update)”

  1. Jako puno se priča, otkad ja to pratim, da se moramo reorjentirati prema izvozu.

    Logika toga se na prvi pogled čini jasna. Mala smo ekonomija, ne možemo proizvesti sve što želimo, a da bismo uvozili moramo izvoziti.

    Međutim meni se ne sviđa taj propovjednički ton o životu iznad svojih mogućnosti kao o nečem što je 1) kronično, 2) sveprisutno i 3) nemoralno.

    Prvo, nije kronično. Uvoz nije nipošto fiksna kategorija. Nevjerojatno brzo se izbalansira sam od sebe. U prva tri mjeseca ove godine uvoz automobila se prepolovio, po nekoj gruboj računici to je 40 000 x 15 000 = 600 000 000 eura uvoza manje ove godine.

    Kada ne bismo imali ništa čime se može trgovati (tradeables) nego živjeli od prodaje parcela uz Jadran i konobarenja, to ne bi bila katastrofa. Dobra sezona? Novi auto. Loša sezona? Biciklom na posao.

    2) Nije sveprisutno. Ne žive svi ljudi iznad svojih mogućnosti. Podsjećam da Hrvatska ima visoke razine štednje, tipične za nestabilne sustave (Talijani štede više od Šveđana).

    3) Nije nemoralno. Ljudi ne uvoze automobile zato jer su zli ili budale pa im netko drugi treba pametovati što da rade. Neki to rade ali kad-tad stvari sjednu na svoje mjesto.

    Ključno je to što bi se sve prilagodbe događale svakodnevno i time bile “glatke” da nije slona u staklani koji se zove država.

    Ona djeluje prociklički, stvara balone, dugoročno na dug održava standard raznih skupina na visokim razinama i rasipa novac na sve strane. S obzirom na svoju veličinu jedno država kad zatetura potrese cijelu ekonomiju. To je jedini igrač koji troši kronično, na sve strane, i nemoralno.

    Treba donijeti ustavni zakon o nultom državnom deficitu a primitke iz proračuna indeksirati ne na plaće ili inflaciju nego veličinu proračuna.

    Pa ako nakon toga i dalje budemo država bez izvoza, to neće kuhati dok ne pukne nego će prilagodbe biti neprimjetne.

  2. Ovo oko državne potrošnje, procikličnosti i deficita su odlične teme za razgovor. Ne znam baš o tom ustavnom aktu o nultom deficitu – to baš nije poželjno – ali manja i efikasnija državna potrošnja je svakako poželjnija kod nas.

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