Jedan Krugmanesque post za Grčku.
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31. ožujka 2009
Kako povećati natalitet (ne gledajte u kardinale za pomoć)
Tyler Cowen na MR blogu prenosi reportažu BBCa o povećanju nataliteta u Gruziji i svojstvenom načinu kako su to postigli.
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04. ožujka 2009
EU, Ukrajina, Koreja
26. veljače 2009
Njihov problem je naš problem
Daniel Gros na VoxEU.org blogu piše o težini i posljedicama problema Istočne Europe za “jezgru” Europe. Ističe kako su manji problem deficiti na tekućim računima platne bilance zemalja Istočne Europe; tečajni padovi bi ih mogli ispraviti za neke zemlje. Po njegovom mišljenju, čak i pretjerane deprecijacije valuta velikih zemalja ne bi stvorile nesnošljive probleme za bankovne bilance i kućanstva izložena valutnom riziku. (Hrvatska se tu nigdje ne spominje illi uklapa u rad.) Tako umjesto potpomognutih financiranja tekućih računa, zalaže se za uspostavljanje fonda za financijsku stabilnost koji bi kreditirao korporacije i kapitalizirao banke Istočne Europe jer za njihovu stabilnost, i tako čitave europe po mišljenju autora, protok kredita je nužno potreban.
As if core Europe did not have enough problems of its own, a new threat has arisen – collapse of the European periphery. The deteriorating foreign exchange and financial conditions of satellite countries in the euro area – from the Baltic region to Eastern Europe, Turkey and Ukraine, not to mention the imploded Icelandic financial system – add yet another source of uncertainty.
Their problems are our problems
The problems in Eastern Europe weigh particularly on the financial solidity of EU banks. EU banks provided the backbone of the banking and financial system in those countries and therefore they are now much exposed to the consequences of mounting capital flights and currency attacks in those countries.
EU banks are not yet strong enough to face additional losses from this front since, despite huge government rescue plans; they have in aggregate received little new capital (less than €200 billion for the entire euro zone). The Bank of International Settlements estimates that European banks hold somewhat more than $600 billion of cross-border claims on emerging European economies (probably 90% of the reported total of around $700 billion).1
When all European banks run for the exit (e.g. by refusing to roll over credit lines that come due or to extend further credit to their subsidiaries), they will be increasing their own losses.
….
Systemic stress requires a systemic response by the EU: The EFSF
In this environment of continuing systemic stress on the banking system, the case-by-case approach at the national level must be abandoned in favour of an ambitious EU-wide approach. The EU should set up a massive European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF). Given the scale of the problem facing European banks, the fund would probably have to be of substantial scale, involving about 5% of EU GDP or around €500–700 billion.2 This is more than might be needed for Eastern Europe, but the crisis is certain to get worse before a recovery begins, and it would be better to have such an instrument ready to face further emergencies. Most of the funds (say, 80%) would probably be used to provide credits (or buy existing ones at a discount), the remainder would be for capital injections, which would make the European Investment Bank (EIB) a major shareholder in the Eastern European subsidiaries of EU banks and probably also a major shareholder of in those EU banks most exposed to Eastern European risk. Eastern European banking systems would effectively be ‘Europeanised’.
Ostatak teksta i grafova ovdje.
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21. veljače 2009
Oh, oh
U posljednjih tjedan dana došlo je do prave navale vijesti o ekonomijama i valutama Istočne Europe. Sve priče se vrte oko bojazni za veliku zaduženost tih zemalja, pogotovo u stranim valutama, te usporavanja ekonomskog rasta što će samo otežati otplatu dugova. U isto vrijeme, deprecijacije valuta diljem Istočne europe bi mogle povećati tu zaduženost. Kod nas još kolaju ideje da će deprecijacija omogućiti rast kroz nekakav čarobni izvoz u ovo doba. Ovo je samo posljednja vijest u nizu.
Latvia’s Government Is the Latest in Europe to Fail
Nation’s Latest Turmoil Over Economy, Following Leadership Collapses in Belgium and Iceland, Sparks New Fears of Contagion
By ALAN CULLISON
Latvia’s prime minister and cabinet resigned Friday, making it the third European government, after Iceland and Belgium, to be toppled by the economic crisis.
The fall of the Baltic country’s center-right coalition government — following weeks of political instability as the Latvian economy nosedives after years of strong growth — deepens worries that eastern Europe’s economic problems could send fresh shockwaves to its neighbors in the west.
Latvian President Valdis Zatlers called for talks to patch together a new government, after accepting the resignation of Prime Minister Ivars Godmanis, in office since December 2007. He stepped down after the two largest parties in the ruling coalition said they had lost confidence in him.
Analysts say the political turmoil likely spells trouble for a €7.5 billion ($9.5 billion) International Monetary Fund loan program Latvia agreed to last year, which has helped underpin Latvia’s currency, the lat.
The government collapse could scuttle an unpopular austerity program that Latvia agreed to in order to avoid a currency devaluation. In January, social and political tensions exploded into some of the worst rioting since the collapse of the Soviet Union on 1991.
Any devaluation of the lat would likely have a knock-on effect elsewhere in the Baltics and in Scandinavia, whose banks were big lenders to Latvia and other Baltic states in the form of euro-denominated loans.
The turmoil in Latvia comes amid fears that weakening currencies in Eastern Europe could cause new defaults with western banks, and worsen the economic spiral in Europe. Shares of Scandinavian banks sank on news of the government resignation Friday, as did the value of the Swedish currency, the kronor.
Latvia’s news comes after the economic crisis also claimed the governments of Belgium and Iceland. In late January, Iceland’s leadership resigned after virtually the nation’s entire banking system collapsed and the island’s currency went into free fall.
On Friday came new data that the contraction in Europe is accelerating. A major purchasing managers index measuring private-sector activity in the euro zone hit a record low in January, the Markit Economics research firm said.
The data coincided with another report showing French business confidence in January at its lowest ebb since sentiment was first gauged in 1976.
European Union finance ministers are planning to discuss the Eastern European banking sector and “possible coordinated action” on Sunday at a summit of EU leaders of the Group of 20 nations in Berlin, a senior German finance ministry official said Friday.
He added that this coordination would include the World Bank, European Investment Bank and European Bank of Reconstruction and Development. Increasing funds from the IMF would also be an option, he said, as the organization has around $200 billion at its disposal for bailout efforts and is seeking to more than double that.
Analysts have warned that Latvia is a particularly weak link in East Europe’s financial system because of an overvalued currency and large private sector debt denominated in euros.
The government last year turned to the IMF and a consortium of European countries for its loan to cover a ballooning current-account deficit. As part of the agreement, Latvia decided to resist a devaluation and launch an austerity program.
The economy’s decline has accelerated under the plan, with output falling more than 10% in the fourth quarter of 2008 from the previous year, meeting a common yardstick for a depression. On Wednesday the Finance Ministry predicted that gross domestic product would fall 12% this year.
Latvia’s president had pressured the government to cut back on the number of ministries to win back public trust. But the coalition of four ruling parties had been unable to reach a consensus.
If Latvia devalues its currency, Lithuania and Estonia, whose economies are closely entwined with Latvia’s, would likely follow suit.
—Andrea Thomas and Paul Hannon contributed to this article.
Write to Alan Cullison at alan.cullison@wsj.com
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27. siječnja 2009
Teret i zamke €
NYT donosi priču upozorenja o ulasku u euro zonu, a lekciju bi mogli proširiti i u domenu samogu ulaska u Eurospku Uniju. Ako ekonomija ima jednu lekciju koja nedostaje drugim disciplinama to je da baš sve ima koristi i troškove. Političarima ta lekcija legne najteže, a najpoželjnije je nikada je i ne naučiti.
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03. studenoga 2008
Komentar na Latinicu o socijalizmu i o produktivnosti
26. listopada 2008
“Vremenska prognoza” Europe
U odnosu na Srpanj kada je prevladavala mjestimična naoblaka uz povremene pljuskove (pravi ljetni neverini), jesen donosi trajnu naoblaku uz olujni vjetar i kišu. Link na interaktivnu vremensku mapu i članaka. Ekonomska slika nekad govori više od tisuću riječi. (Klik za uvećanje)
Cronomy.org 